Supply Chain Observatory
US Critical Minerals Intelligence · Mine-to-Mineral · Phase I
Supply Risk Scores — SR = ∛(DP × TE × EV) · Nassar & Fortier 2021
Nd·Pr Oxide (Sep)
REE Separation · 2025
0.706
ConcernEV: stage proxy
HHI
5,250
Top supplier
China 71%
Li₂CO₃
Li Carbonate · 2025
0.596
WatchEV: stage proxy
HHI
4,507
Top supplier
Chile 54%
Natural Graphite
Graphite Mining · 2025
0.537
WatchHHI
6,316
Top supplier
China 46%
Co(OH)₂
Co Processing · 2025
0.464
WatchHHI
3,077
Top supplier
Norway 26%
NiSO₄
Ni Processing · 2025
0.337
FavorableHHI
2,705
Top supplier
Canada 44%
Net Import Reliance
USGS MCS2026 Fig2 · 2025E
Import Sources
MCS2026 Fig3 · 2021–24 avg
Rare Earths · default view
Price Signals
Fig10 · MCS2026
Bismuth
+270%
+52%
Antimony, metal
+144%
+47%
Germanium, metal
+106%
+36%
Rhenium, metal
+91%
+28%
Tellurium (U.S.)
+60%
+15%
Ruthenium
+53%
+5%
Tungsten, concentrate
+51%
+14%
Ytterbium, oxide
+50%
+11%
Cerium, oxide
+41%
+3%
Samarium, oxide
+40%
+9%
Amber rising · Green falling
Export Controls
T4 · Global · Nov 2025
Quartz and gypsum (2024).
AngolaExport ban
Metal waste and scrap (2025).
ArmeniaTemporary export ban
Raw diamonds (2025).
BotswanaExport ban
Antimony (2024), bismuth (2025), synthesized diamond (2025), gallium (2023), germanium (2023), graphite (2023), indium (2025), magnesium materials (2024), molybdenum (2025), rare earths (2025), silver (2026), tellurium (2025), tungsten (2025), and items related to lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials (2025).
ChinaExport licensing requirement for materials and technologies
Cobalt (2025).
Congo (Kinshasa)Export quota
Bauxite (2023), copper concentrates (2023), and nickel ore (2020).
IndonesiaExport ban
Ferrous ingot and ferrous metal waste and scrap (2023) and catalysts and waste containing precious metals (2025).
KyrgyzstanTemporary export ban
Raw minerals, including copper, gold, iron, nickel, potassium, silver, and zinc (2024).
LaosExport ban
Source: USGS MCS2026 Table 4