ATHENA.
Phase I

Scenarios

Specify a shock · propagate through the material graph · receive H / C / L supply envelopes

REE / NdFeB — Phase I
Nassar & Fortier 2021
PrOMMiS UKy · TRL4

1 · Shock specification

75%
0% — no disruption100% — total ban

2 · Demand parameters

Short-run ε by end-use segment
EV / Mobilityε = -0.15
-0.50APQP/PPAP 24m0.00
Wind Energyε = -0.07
-0.25EPC/PPA lock-in0.00
Defense / Aerospaceε = -0.01
-0.10MIL-SPEC lock-in0.00
Industrial Motorsε = -0.30
-0.80Ferrite substitution0.00

Short-run priors from Nassar & Fortier 2021 · Riddle et al. 2015 (ANL). Defense near-zero reflects MIL-SPEC qualification lock-in; industrial highest due to ferrite/induction substitution path.

3 · Horizon & run

Supply availability preview

0m3m6m9m12m
High
Central
Low
preview

ATHENA model stack

L3

Macro trajectories

Long-run demand boundary conditions

0/2 active

GCAM — Global Change Analysis Model

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

TRL 7Phase IIPNNL

ReEDS — Regional Energy Deployment System

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

TRL 7Phase IINREL
L2

Network equilibrium

Supply shock propagation & price formation

0/2 active

GCMat — Global Critical Materials Agent-Based Market Model

Argonne National Laboratory

TRL 4Phase IIANL

GC-MAT Geochemical Modeling

Argonne National Laboratory

TRL 3Phase IIANL
L1

Process economics & scoring

Node cost, yield, and risk scoring

3/6 active

PrOMMiS UKy REE Separation Flowsheet

NETL / University of Kentucky

TRL 4NETL

Nassar & Fortier 2021 — Production-Share HHI + BEA EV

USGS / BEA

TRL 4

Ryter & Nassar 2026 — Restriction Probability Model

USGS

TRL 4

Nassar et al. 2025 — Economic Effects (OFR 2025-1047)

USGS

TRL 3Phase II

EverBatt Battery Recycling Techno-Economics

Argonne National Laboratory

TRL 5Phase IIANL

GREET Life Cycle Assessment

Argonne National Laboratory

TRL 7Phase IIANL