Cobalt · Co
battery_metal · byproduct
Bottom line
Cobalt sits on 3 federal critical-minerals lists; mine supply is highly concentrated (HHI 0.59, 2025), led by 🇨🇩 Congo (Kinshasa) at 75% of output. The US is 79% net import-reliant (2025). Prices rose 27% over the past year (-10%/yr over 4y).
At a glance
Headline indicators
Price · 2025e
15dollars per pound
USGS MCS (LME) · source marks this value estimated
Price trend
+27% 1Y
-10%/yr · 4Y CAGR
US net import reliance · 2025
79%
Mine production HHI
0.59
Highly concentrated · 2025
From ore to use
lifecycle flow
- 01Reserves
12.0Mt
Congo (Kinshasa) leads · 50% share
- 02Production
268.5Kt
Congo (Kinshasa) top · 2024
- 03Trade
9.5Kt
net importer · 2025
- 04Stocks
1.5Kt
year-end · 2025
- 05Consumption
9.6Kt
Consumption (includes secondary): Apparent · 2025
Process engineering
2 PROMMIS flowsheets
PROMMIS · diafiltration
Open workbench →Single two-salt diafiltration module - Co stays in the retentate as Li exits via the permeate. Selectivity is the natural design objective when Co is the target stream.
commodity: cobalt · suggested axis: diafiltrate_flow_volume · y: co_permeate_recovery_pct
PROMMIS · membrane_cascade
Open workbench →Multi-stage cascade cost-optimized against a Co recovery floor - the trade-off curve of cost vs how much Co you insist on recovering.
commodity: cobalt · suggested axis: cobalt_recovery_target · y: total_annualized_cost
Model inputs
Export for GCAM
This commodity's rows from strata's GCAM-CMM input bundle - graded supply curves (USGS reserves × benchmark cost model, 1975 USD/kg per GCAM convention), demand intensities, and the basis lineage that says exactly what each figure counts. These are inputs toGCAM: strata is the data; the model and its runs are PNNL's. Every file keeps its provenance header.
- Supply curve (A11)
- Demand intensity (A32)
- Demand mapping (A33)
- Basis & lineage (A10)
- Reference prices (A10)
- MCS reserves
- MCS production
Whole tables: A11 · A10 info · A32 · bundle manifest · intensity API (JSON)
Coverage
Data coverage notes
- datedMaterial-flow analysis is historical - All 141 material-flow records date to 2005 or earlier (Yale STAF era). They describe the anthropogenic cycle of that period, not today's system.
- datedExport-restriction inventory ends 2020 - The OECD industrial-raw-materials inventory (vendored snapshot) reports HS-line measures only through 2020; restrictions enacted since are not reflected in the measure table.
- narrowConsumption geography is single-economy (United States) - Reported consumption covers one economy only - the world usage split must be read from trade flows, not from a consumption table.
Methodology
How strata reads a commodity
The eight-stage lens, the observed-vs-estimated membrane, stage-honest supply, per-stage concentration, ownership resolution and the demand lens - the full method is illustrated live on copper, nickel and lithium.
Provenance
Where this data comes from
- BGS World Mineral Statistics
- IEA Critical Minerals Dataset (CMO 2025)
midstream_components_seed
ni43101_deposits
ownership_control_seed
sec_edgar_ex96_pdf
- Statistics Canada Table 16-10-0022
- USGS DS-140 (constant 1998 USD)
- USGS DS-140 (nominal)
- USGS MCS (LME)
- USGS MCS (U.S. spot)
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries World Data (legacy wide format, 2023-2025 vintages)
- USGS Minerals Yearbook OFR 2025-1047
- USGS Minerals Yearbook Vol III, reference year 2019
usgs_critmin_deposits_v3
usgs_deposit_gt
usgs_mine_waste
usgs_mrds_2016
usgs_pp1802_global
usmin_critical_deposits
xu 2020 commat
23 sources · titles open the source card · url opens the publisher