• no forecastTantalum: no free authoritative demand forecast - TIC, the authoritative study group, publishes no free numeric demand forecast (its statistical reports are member-exclusive for 12 months and historical); USGS MCS 2026 tantalum has no forward numeric line; the EC JRC 2023 foresight covers only the ICT slice (capacitor/electronics, ~10% of the ~2,500 t/yr market).
• no dataNo commodity-decomposed recycling data - No USGS MCS Fig13 scrap rows. EU WEEE / battery EOL flows (Phase 6.1.1) are country-keyed only - see country profiles.
• datedMaterial-flow analysis is historical - All 4 material-flow records date to 2000 or earlier (Yale STAF era). They describe the anthropogenic cycle of that period, not today's system.
• datedEnvironmental footprint is dated - Cradle-to-gate intensity rows carry a 2008 inventory vintage (Nuss & Eckelman-era LCA). Current-process footprints are not yet in scope.
• datedExport-restriction inventory ends 2020 - The OECD industrial-raw-materials inventory (vendored snapshot) reports HS-line measures only through 2020; restrictions enacted since are not reflected in the measure table.
• narrowConsumption geography is single-economy (United States) - Reported consumption covers one economy only - the world usage split must be read from trade flows, not from a consumption table.

The eight-stage lens, the observed-vs-estimated membrane, stage-honest supply, per-stage concentration, ownership resolution and the demand lens - the full method is illustrated live on copper, nickel and lithium.

Read the methodology, illustrated live →